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RBI’s Unexpected Rate Cut: A Game-Changer for Stock Markets and the Economy

By Mohammad Saffan

Updated on:

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In a shocking policy move on June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a surprise 50 bps repo rate cut to 5.5%—its steepest single reduction in years—alongside a 100 bps CRR cut to 3%, sending clear signals on growth amid controlled inflation.

Introduction: Unprecedented Shift in RBI’s Strategy

India’s central bank pulled off what analysts are calling a “bazooka”—a coordinated repo and CRR cut that defied market expectations. With inflation at 6‑year lows (~3.16% in April) and GDP growing healthy at 7.4% in Q1, this was a bold, front-loaded approach to reinvigorate domestic demand amid global economic uncertainty .

Data-Backed Analysis

Repo Rate,Slashed by 50 bps (from 6.0% to 5.5%)—a larger-than-expected move, marking the third cut in 2025, totaling 100 bps .

Compared to March 2020’s emergency response, this is the sharpest since then .

Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)

Reduced by 100 bps, releasing liquidity worth approximately ₹2.5 lakh crore to banks .

Economic Landscape

Inflation subdued: ~3.16% in April, well under RBI’s 4% target .,GDP growth robust: 7.4% in Q1 2025; RBI projects ~6.5% for FY26 .

Policy Stance,Transitioned from “accommodative” to “neutral”—sending a clear handshake between supporting growth and preventing overheating .

Key Takeaways

Bold move: This is the steepest rate adjustment since the pandemic, showcasing the RBI’s willingness to preemptively support growth.

Growth focus: The twin rate and CRR cuts aim to enhance credit flow, turbocharge demand, and support sectors like real estate and infrastructure.

Cautious optimism: While powerful, the “neutral” stance signals a data‑dependent approach to future rate actions.

Implications for Stakeholders

Investors ,Benchmark bond yields fell; Sensex rallied ~800 points, Nifty Bank soared to ~56,644 .Equities in rate-sensitive sectors (banking, real estate, consumer) saw sharp inflows.

Borrowers,EMIs for home, auto & personal loans are set to ease.Cheaper credit boosts affordability and consumer sentiment.

Businesses,Enhanced lending capacity supports capital expenditure in infrastructure and manufacturing.Lower financing costs improve profitability and expansion viability.

Expert Analysis & Cause‑Effect Reasoning

The RBI governor’s dual action is a textbook case of pre-emptive monetary easing:

Trigger #1: Inflation under control With CPI below target, RBI has margin to support growth.

Trigger #2: Global headwinds Fears of U.S. Fed rate cuts stalling and trade/tariff uncertainty justified proactive stimulus.

Trigger #3: Growth slowing Despite prior GDP momentum, sequential slowing prompted decisive policy.

Strategic shiftSenior economists suggest this is an aggressive front-loading strategy to safeguard growth without losing policy flexibility .

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